The Product Opportunity Matrix

Chances are, you have been told that to make a successful product, you have to build a solution to a problem someone has.

It’s the only opportunity recognised by the old-fashioned Lean Startup doctrine — a limitation that has doomed many startups to output misguided products that no one wants to use.

On the other hand, our Opportunity Matrix expands the horizon of anyone who wants to build a new product with more opportunity types to find Product-Market Fit.

Opportunity type 1: Solve

Solving a problem is by far the most popular opportunity, but to be a viable path to Product-Market Fit, two conditions must be fulfilled:

  • the problem needs to be discovered (known to you AND the market)
  • and the problem needs to be unsolved

Pros

  • Less competition (except when the problem is publicly known)
  • Easy (or even guaranteed) early adoption
  • Narrow team skillset may suffice (engineers only)
  • Focus on technology (you can ignore human factors)
  • Value carried by utility features

Cons

  • Restricted access to unsolved problems that are not publicly known— you need to be a trusted partner, an insider, to get access to critical business or consumer problems
  • High chance to encounter lack of awareness or inability to verbalise problems adequately (the “faster horses” effect)
  • Utility features are easy to copy (you may be forced to compete on price)
  • Rarity — it’s hard to find markets with known and unsolved problems (it’s a whole different skillset and opportunity type)

Examples

Anduril Industries, a Silicon Valley startup founded by Palmer Luckey (the Oculus Rift designer), had to win the Pentagon’s trust and become a contractor with access to the American army’s unsolved problems.

A lady who runs a Facebook group for new mothers (a safe and trusted space), listens to their unsolved and urgent problems so her husband, a handyman, can build custom products that solve these problems.

Opportunity type 2: Improve

If your pilot product is a solution, but you haven’t positioned yourself as a trusted B2B/B2C partner, it’s very likely that you have a problem with early adoption, lack of market interest and usage.

It’s also very likely that the problem you’re solving has already being solved, albeit in a low-tech primitive way you don’t like. Say with Excel and local files.

In any case, solving an already solved problem is not a viable path to PMF and you better try the next opportunityimproving an existing solution.

Pros

  • Open access (almost anyone is free to improve almost anything)
  • Abundance of opportunities (everything can be improved)
  • Visible competition
  • Clear product targets

Cons

  • Minor improvements are not enough for adoption (need 10x better)
  • Some improvements need wider skillsets (say human-centric)
  • More competition
  • Needs solid utility to improve

Examples

Sketch improved Photoshop for the web/digital designers market. Figma improved Sketch by making it more accessible (free browser app), more collaborative and more useful for frontend developers.

Google improved search. Enough said.

Opportunity type 3: Discover

If you have the mindset of a curious researcher and the personality of a playful explorer, you might not be satisfied with merely improving the obvious.

Luckily for you, there are plenty of hidden problems, unmet needs, and underserved markets for you to Discover.

If you are building a solution, you might think your opportunity is type 1: Solve, but if you don’t know for sure that the problem exists, i.e. you assume it exists, then your actual opportunity is Discover.

Pros

  • Opportunities arise frequently (especially in dynamic markets)
  • No need to build solid utility (this is what you will discover later)
  • You can open vast markets with viral products
    Value carried by engagement features (but see the cons)

Cons

  • Engaging product are hard to build (but that’s what you need)
  • Practical understanding of user engagement is rare
    Requires a very diverse team skillset (understanding of both technology and people)
  • You need to be the first to do it right (for a market)

Examples

ChatGPT 3.5 had no built-in utility but exceptional user engagement. Early adopters (mostly developers) started discovering utility (practical applications). Plus, it opened new markets for AI solutions.

Duolingo excels at user engagement, although the utility (actually learning a language) is questionable at best. Opened a vast unaddressed market.

Opportunity type 4: Create

By now you should have made sense of the SOLVED-UNSOLVED and DISCOVERED-UNDISCOVEED axes and you must be wondering: but isn’t this the worst situation to be in — to have built a solution to an undiscovered, unknown and probably nonexistent problem?

Hard no.

See, those who mock your product as a “solution looking for a problem” don’t recognise that this is not only a viable opportunity, but often an advanced evolutionary stage for startups, businesses and even industries.

You can definitely Create a market for your product, for example by:

  • symbiotic partnerships with other technologies or companies
  • a mandate, regulation or monopoly
  • clever marketing

Pros

  • Ultimate scale (you can get too big to fail)
  • Accessibility (especially if you go the marketing path)
  • You can do a lot with capital alone (no brainer)
  • Product qualities could be ignored

Cons

  • Needs a certain level of product and business maturity
  • May require the most diverse team skillset
  • You might need to become a ruthless psychopath (but take that as a personal development opportunity)
  • More effective for adoption than for usage

Examples

Have you noticed how you are being pushed GenAI features from everywhere even when you think is not necessary or valuable? This is an extreme example of brute-force market creation by an industry aggressively pushing solutions you didn’t want.

Uber created its initial market by engagement features, then massively expanded by becoming a capital-fuelled price-dumping monopoly. What it turned into afterwards is another story.

To recap

We hope that now you can apply the simple and easy to remember notion of the solved-unsolved and discovered-undiscovered axes to identify where you are on the matrix, and what are your viable opportunities.

If you are in a position to know an unsolved problem, go for solving it. But if you see no adoption or usage, then the problem is likely already solved. You still have the opportunity to significantly improve the solution. 

If you have the personality and skillset to discover, go for that opportunity. And if it seems that no one wants your product but you have the resources and the marketing skills, try creating a market for your product. 

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